In January–April 2026, Ukraine spent $293.4 million on tractor imports — almost the same as a year earlier. At the same time, the structure of supplies saw a notable reshuffle: according to the State Customs Service, Germany overtook the United States for the first time and became the main source of imports.

The breakdown at the beginning of 2026 looks like this: Germany shipped machinery worth $62.7 million (21.4% of the market), the United States — $61.9 million (21%), and China — $53.2 million (18.1%). A year earlier, the situation was different: the U.S. led with $62.5 million, Germany ranked second with $52.2 million, and China was third with $47.3 million. In other words, over the year U.S. supplies fell by $0.6 million, while Germany added $10.5 million and China added $5.9 million. Total imports declined by just 0.3%: $293.4 million versus $294.3 million a year earlier — the market remains stable, but the balance of power is changing.

What exactly is being imported from different countries

Supplies from “Germany” and the “United States” do not always mean exclusively brands from those countries. Germany mainly ships Fendt, AGCO, Claas, and Deutz-Fahr, whose key production facilities are concentrated in Bavaria and Lower Saxony. At the same time, re-export of machinery from other brands — including John Deere from distributor warehouses — also passes through the ports of Hamburg and Bremen. Imports from the United States are primarily John Deere and Case IH — the most expensive segment, consisting of large and ultra-high-power machines above 300 hp for major agricultural holdings. China mainly supplies Lovol, YTO, Dongfeng, and Foton — machines in the UAH 450,000–900,000 price range for small and medium-sized farms.

Why China’s share is growing

China’s rise from $47.3 million to $53.2 million over the year is not a random anomaly but a sustainable trend. According to Agriline, in 2026 Chinese mini-tractors and medium-power machines account for around 70–80% of the compact machinery segment up to 40 hp. The key change is quality: stereotypes about “thin metal” mainly relate to batches from before 2023–2024. In the 2025–2026 lineups, metal thickness has increased to 6–10 mm compared with 4–5 mm before, engines have been improved, and service life has increased by 30–50% compared with five years ago. For a farmer managing 200–500 hectares, a Chinese tractor with 80–120 hp priced at UAH 600,000–900,000 becomes a real alternative to a John Deere model of comparable power costing UAH 2–3 million.

Load and wear: the main challenge for the machinery fleet

According to Valerii Adamchuk, Director of the Institute of Mechanics and Automation of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, the load on agricultural machinery in Ukraine is 2.5–3 times higher than in EU countries. The reason is a shortage of machinery amid large production volumes. The consequence is accelerated wear: in 2025, farmers deregistered nearly 23,747 units of machinery — almost three times more than a year earlier. So the market is not only buying new machines but also massively writing off worn-out ones — systemic re-equipment is in full swing.

State support was strengthened in 2026: the program compensating 15% of the cost of Ukrainian-made machinery was increased to UAH 1.8 billion, and for frontline regions the compensation share was raised to 40%. At the same time, this program applies exclusively to domestic manufacturers — imports are not covered.

Ukrainian tractor exports: small but growing

Despite the focus on imports, there is movement in the opposite direction as well. In the first four months of 2026, Ukraine exported tractors worth $3.14 million — twice as much as a year earlier ($1.63 million). Belgium became the largest buyer with a 23.6% share. Most likely, this involves re-export of used machinery or supplies of tractors assembled in Ukraine — KhTZ and DTZ — to EU markets, where demand for affordable and reliable equipment is growing as farmers exit agricultural subsidy programs.

Analysis: how this affects the market as a whole

- Germany’s lead over the United States is minimal, so first place is determined by the availability of specific model ranges and re-export channels. Competition in the upper price segment will remain intense.

- China is securing its position in the compact and mid-range classes thanks to improved quality and a noticeably lower total cost of ownership. Under conditions of high fleet workloads and mass write-offs, this makes Chinese models the default renewal option for small and medium-sized farms.

- Total imports are barely changing, which means demand is driven primarily by replacing worn-out equipment rather than expanding the fleet. State compensation supports domestic manufacturers but does not affect import segments where either high-powered machines or affordable mid-range “workhorses” are needed.

- The doubling of exports from a low base indicates liquidity in the secondary market and the existence of “windows of opportunity” in the EU for budget-friendly solutions, including Ukrainian assembly.

Overall, the market remains stable in volume but is rapidly reshaping its structure. Germany and the United States share the premium segment, while China is steadily gaining ground in the compact and mid-range classes, fueled by heavy fleet workloads and the need for affordable equipment renewal.